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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Shape Up |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-4 pro Pitch | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetyIncident |