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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Shape Up |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 2-6 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-4 pro Pitch | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |