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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Kanban |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | Ongoing | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FlowVisual managementDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery |