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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 20-45 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 1-10 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | EstimationEffortRisk |