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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations 8D Problem Solving |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For an acute quality or delivery problem, the method structures immediate protection and root cause work together. It keeps the situation stable while the actual cause is investigated cleanly. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 1-6 Wochen | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | 8D Report, Containment Plan, Root Cause Evidence, Corrective Action Plan | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | QualityProblem solvingRoot cause | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |