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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | laufend | 1-5 Tage | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-12 | 4-12 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationForecastingFlow | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | ForecastingFlowDelivery |