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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |