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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 20–45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | KnowledgeMappingRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | FailureResilienceRisk |