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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration for Bottleneck Analysis.
Operations
Bottleneck Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min30-120 min1-3 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
3-102-63-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasBottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up MeasuresCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
LeanObservationProcessOperations
FlowMeasurementConstraints
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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