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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 1-3 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskRoot causeSafety | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | Root causeSafetyIncident |