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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | 1-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |