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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | Nutzertraffic | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |