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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | Half day | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |