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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 30-120 min | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | 2-6 | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | LeanObservationProcessOperations | EstimationEffortAgile |