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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min5-20 min2-6 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
3-103-203-103-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation ActionsCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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