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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |