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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |