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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |