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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |