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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMediumLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-4 Wochen1-3 h20-45 min
Participantsdifferent
3-106-30 Experten2-81-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage PointsBehavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics
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