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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Decision Matrix |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When several options collide with several criteria, comparison quickly becomes subjective. A Decision Matrix makes the trade-off visible and brings weighting, criteria, and options into a shared logic. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 3-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Decision Matrix, Scoring Rationale, Selected Option | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | DecisionCriteriaScoringTradeoffs | Root causeSafetyIncident | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |