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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min30-90 min20–45 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
3-102-8Small cross-functional group3-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsConstraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision BoundariesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
FailureResilienceRisk
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