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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile Bucket System |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |