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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 20–45 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | FlowMeasurementConstraints | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |