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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 5-20 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-20 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortRisk | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |