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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-20 min daily | 20–45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | FailureResilienceRisk |