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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 4-10 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |