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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 4-10 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery |