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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |