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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 90-180 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |