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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 5-20 min | 20-35 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 3-20 | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |