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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of Leverage Points with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Leverage Points
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
2-4 h5-20 min15-45 minHalf day
Participantsdifferent
3-83-201-83-12
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesLeverage Map, Action Strategy
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
Systems thinkingChangeStrategy
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