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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 5-20 min | 45-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 3-20 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationEffortRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ChangeDecisionStrategy |