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Criterion
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
30-60 min10-30 min je Item1-4 Wochen2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
2-81-86-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Fishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
Root causeQualityOperations
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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