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Criterion
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
30-60 min45-60 min2-8 h45-90 min
Participantssame
2-82-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Fishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Root causeQualityOperations
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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