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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-3 h20–45 min30-90 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-8Small cross-functional group1-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
DecisionTreeOptions
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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