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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |