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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | laufend | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |