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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |