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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration of an IBIS map with issues, positions and arguments
Knowledge Modeling
IBIS
Red Teaming method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Red Teaming
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus.For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
1-3 h1-3 h1-4 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-83-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsIssue Map, Positions, Argument NotesChallenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation PlanAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
RationaleKnowledgeDecision
RiskDecisionSensemaking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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