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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowLow
Timedifferent
1-3 hHalber Tag45-90 min20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
3-85-202-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
ResilienceOperationsIncident
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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