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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 2-4 h | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |