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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
1-3 h2-4 h45-60 min60-120 min
Participantsdifferent
3-83-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
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