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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |