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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHighLow
Timedifferent
1-3 h1-4 WochenHalf day20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
3-86-30 Experten3-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesStress Test Report, Action Plan per ScenarioRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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