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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowLow
Timedifferent
1-3 h2-6 h20–45 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-83-8Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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