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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |