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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
1-3 h45-90 min45-60 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
3-82-82-82-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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