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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-10 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery |