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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min10-30 min je Item5-20 min15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
2-81-83-201-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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